By Dong Sun Lee
Marked adjustments within the stability of energy among states within the overseas approach are ordinarily noticeable via IR students as one of the commonest factors of conflict. This e-book explains why such energy shifts result in warfare breaking out often times, yet now not in others. not like present methods, this publication argues that the army technique of declining states is the major determinant of no matter if strength shifts bring about conflict or cross peacefully. extra in particular, Dong solar Lee argues that the likelihood of struggle is basically a functionality of whether a declining nation possesses a ‘manoeuvre technique’ or an ‘attrition strategy’. The argument is built throughout the research of fourteen strength shifts between nice powers during the last centuries. Shifts within the stability of energy and the attendant hazards of conflict stay a permanent function of foreign politics. This e-book argues that policymakers have to comprehend the standards influencing the danger of warfare because of those adjustments, specifically the modern shifts in energy caused by the increase of China and from the expansion of nuclear proliferation.
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Extra resources for Power Shifts, Strategy and War: Declining States and International Conflict (Routledge Global Security Studies)
Example text
64 A strategic nuclear offensive can meet these requirements under three conditions. First, the target state must not launch an immediate all-out retaliation before the offensive delivers a disarming blow. If the target state employs an allout nuclear response upon warning of an impending attack, the attacker will find it impossible to avoid catastrophic destruction. Second, the nuclear attack should not be so massive as to produce large collateral damage and blowback nuclear fallout. Turning the enemy society into a “smoking, radiating ruin” destroys valuable spoils as well as creating a potentially dangerous power vacuum in the region.
They usually deploy a majority of forces along the anticipated route of attack to avoid a dangerous local inferiority. This uneven force distribution can present an opportunity for maneuver even when force density is sufficiently high on average. 90 However, they concentrated their field armies along the Belgian frontier – the expected axis of German attack – while deploying a token force in the Ardennes. Another common argument on sources of strategy is that military strategy is a simple function of political will – preventive motive in our case.
The limited scale of the attack can also allow the attacker to avoid large collateral damage and blowback fallout. For these reasons, preventive war is possible when the declining state has high confidence in a nuclear maneuver strategy’s success. A strategic theory of preventive war 31 In contrast, a nuclear attrition strategy holds little promise for removing the enemy’s retaliatory capability at an acceptable cost. The nuclear attrition strategy aims to destroy the bulk of the enemy’s arsenal directly.