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By National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee on the Status and Future Directions in U.S Weather Modification Research and Operations

The elements on planet Earth is an important and infrequently deadly strength in human affairs. Efforts to regulate or lessen the dangerous affects of climate return a long way in time. during this, the most recent nationwide Academies evaluate of climate amendment, the committee was once requested to evaluate the facility of present and proposed climate amendment features to supply valuable affects on water source administration and climate danger mitigation. It examines new applied sciences, reports advances in numerical modelling at the cloud and mesoscale, and considers how advancements in desktop services can be utilized to climate amendment. "Critical concerns in climate amendment learn" examines the prestige of the technological know-how underlying climate amendment within the usa. It demands a coordinated nationwide examine application to respond to basic questions on easy atmospheric procedures, and to deal with different concerns which are impeding growth in climate amendment.

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Neither of these exists nor are they likely to exist in the foreseeable future. In considering the role of weather modification in the field of atmospheric science, it is important to emphasize that many of the uncertainties limiting an understanding of the physics and dynamics of seeded clouds are the same as those that limit quantitative precipitation forecasting in weather forecast models and cloud parameterizations in climate models. 39 40 CRITICAL ISSUES IN WEATHER MODIFICATION RESEARCH An example of a physical evaluation can be found in early weather modification experiments that involved dropping dry-ice pellets into stratus clouds and observing the transition of supercooled drops into masses of ice crystals in the time and location predicted by laboratory studies and theory.

Generally the suggested physical evidence for seeding effects was deduced from after-the-fact examination of the data. From the many kinds of measurements obtained certain ones may be selected because they appear to be associated with a useful seeding effect, perhaps in a particular partition of the data. The scientist then postulates a mechanism whereby the supposed effect might be linked to the treatment. Regrettably those postulates have not been verified by further experimentation. Statisticians working with meteorologists have developed a range of design and analysis techniques for assessing seeding experiments.

This technique could have major impacts on weather modification research if utilized. Because of the significant natural variability in cloud systems, seeding experiments must acquire large numbers of experimental units if a relatively small seeding effect is to be distinguished from chance variations. This has meant long and expensive experiments. , weather, land use, background aerosols), many of which can be handled by proper randomization (at least in principle). , 2002). The ACWC introduced the concept of exploratory and confirmatory experiments to differentiate between searching for possible seeding effects and formal testing of a postulated effect.

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